A dice game - solution |
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Make the first roll.
1/36 of the possibilities gives A an instant win.
6/36 give B a chance on a second roll, and the other 29 - this is the key - are meaningless in every sense. With those 29 you start over.
So, the only outcomes of interest are those first 7 outcomes.
So we now look at the second roll, and here is the second key.
If neither A nor B wins by the second roll, then you are again back where you started. You start over.
So the question simplifies to this:
At what rate does A win when the game begins with one of those 7 rolls and does not last longer than 2 rolls?
There are 7*36 possibilities.
A wins 36 of those on the first roll, and another 6 on the second roll.
So A wins 1/6.
B wins 36 of them, all on the 2nd roll. So 1/7.
A/B = 7/6
And clearly A + B = 1
So the probability for A to win is 7/13.